AC: 2.5-ton 1-stage vs 3-ton 2-stage?

I need a new furnace and am going to replace my ~28-year-old 2.5-ton AC at the same time. Rep is recommending a single stage 2.5-ton over a 2-stage 3-ton. His reasoning is 2.5 is the right size, so having to go to 3-ton to get two stage isn't better, neither stage would actually be right. The price difference is less important to me than getting the choice right. If it matters, he's using Bryant products and I live in SE Michigan. Thoughts?

thanks in advance!

source https://hvac-talk.com/vbb/threads/2243633-AC-2-5-ton-1-stage-vs-3-ton-2-stage?goto=newpost