payback standard heat pump vs ducted mini-split

I'm trying to decide if a $**** cost difference between a ducted mini-split and a typical heat pump is worth it. My backup heat is oil. We are in southern PA. At 17F the mini-split has about 25,000 btuh while the standard heat pump has about 15,000 btuh. On paper neither has high enough btuh to to put a big dent in the oil usage, but I have neighbors who use only a standard heat pump who say their auxiliary electric heat does not come on, and on a percentage basis the mini-split puts out a lot more btuh at lower temps than the typical heat pump.

Part of the difficulty in discussing with neighbors is that thermostats do not record history showing if/when auxiliary heat comes on in the middle of the night. A related difficulty is finding hourly temperature history data to estimate how many hours during the overnights the temperature falls below the point heat pumps can meet the load.

Thanks for your thoughts.

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source https://hvac-talk.com/vbb/threads/2242947-payback-standard-heat-pump-vs-ducted-mini-split?goto=newpost