Replacing central A/C. Can I rely on prior system size for sizing new system?

I'm replacing a Carrier with a Daikin Fit system, which has different technology (variable speed inverter) My old Carrier is a 3 ton system. The quote I got is similarly for a 3 ton system with the assumption that if 3 tons worked previously, it should work for the new system, according to the contractor.

I'm in Hawaii where it's always hot. The old system cools the house pretty well and doesn't seem to have trouble going down to relatively low temperatures in the 60's. But it turns off and on all day. From what I've read, that would imply it's big enough or too big -- though it's not clammy and humid in the house, so maybe it's just right.

I know there are a lot of variables that go into calculating system size, but I don't know R values of walls, ceilings, and other parameters. I can only guess. I plugged my best guesses into a bunch of online calculators and mostly got back 3.5 ton results.

Anyway, I'm basically wondering if there is there some kind of rule-of-thumb where you know the system is too big (or too small) based on how often it turns on and off, how long it runs for, etc.?

thanks

source https://hvac-talk.com/vbb/threads/2239617-Replacing-central-A-C-Can-I-rely-on-prior-system-size-for-sizing-new-system?goto=newpost