No manual J yet so this is a guestimate. house is located in a cool but moderate climate (coastal northern california) so heating is more important than cooling. it never hits freezing temps here but hits 40s at night pretty consistently. House is reasonably well insulate, double paned windows etc. I've had several contractors come out, 2 recommended 5ton units, third one said the house is too big and i should get 2 units...
source https://hvac-talk.com/vbb/threads/2228530-Can-a-5ton-heat-pump-provide-sufficient-heating-for-3500sqft-house?goto=newpost
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